The Inbounds Pass

Good news for Bobcats fans

Sat, 31 Mar 2012 21:02:22 -0400

Good news for Bobcats fans

The Mayor on Hakeem

Tue, 27 Mar 2012 10:00:05 -0400

The Mayor on Hakeem

Tragic Heroes - Playing Hero Ball fairly well, but in a losing effort

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 14:00:05 -0400

Rubio and Knight - good personal clutch play; so-so team results

Here’s a table showing people that can are assisted on 50% or less of their clutch shots, shooting within a reasonable range of their normal shooting percentage (or better), but still bear a negative plus/minus score.

They’re playing pretty well in the clutch but, on average, they’re not winning.

Jrue Holiday, in 63 clutch minutes, has increased his regular shooting percentage by about 21% to 63%! He’s averaging 3 steals per 48 clutch minutes, and is shooting 50% from three. Only 33% of his shots are assisted in the clutch, making him the hero-balling-est player in this category.

Other notes from this table:

Rubio shoots really well in the clutch, improving his FG% by about 10% and his 3PT % is .667
Someone needs to tell Jarret Jack to stop shooting threes in crunch time
Ellis, Augustin, Lou Williams, DeRozan, and Stephen Jackson take waaaaay too many threes in crunch time
Deron Williams shoots well in the clutch from everywhere
Apparently you should foul Calderon and Knight at the end of games
Deron Williams and Jackson are turnover prone (7.5+)
If Augustin’s minutes are a guide, the Bobcats aren’t frequently in close games…

Stats from 82games.com

Pics from http://tinyurl.com/7wwlebl and http://tinyurl.com/77sv6bg

Video

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 11:00:05 -0400

On NBA Predictions - Conclusions

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:02:05 -0400

So what does this tell us? Simply that it’s really hard to guess how the season will pan out? A few of these awards seem like they should have been locks from the outset – particularly Howard as defensive player of the year. Of course, a lot of these predictions aren’t done with any thought of accuracy or that they’ll get checked well after the fact. In hindsight, the 2010-2011 season had some pretty big surprises: Chicago’s success and Derrick Rose’s MVP play; Dallas making it to the Finals, let alone winning; and, Boston taking themselves out of contention with the Perkins-Green trade. There was a lot of hype about Thibodeau going into the 2010 season, and he proved his ability by taking the long-floundering Bulls to the top of the conference and deep in the play-offs. Blake Griffin came back from injury and single-handedly made the Clippers interesting to watch.

The leading NBA season forecasters, according to this form of tabling, are Tyler Conway of Bleacher Report and Chad Ford of ESPN. Tyler went 4 for 7, Chad was 5 for 9. John Hollinger and Justin Verrier are tied for second, both going 4 for 9. As mentioned before, nobody picked Dallas to get to the finals, only two of the previews had Odom as 6^th man, and only 4 had Thibodeau as Coach of the Year. Five people had the prescience to select Kevin Love as the Most Improved Player.

The most common successful predictions were Miami winning the East (26), Griffin as Rookie of the Year (20), and Howard as Defensive Player of the Year (20).

The most common unsuccessful prediction was Los Angeles getting back to, and winning, the Finals (all but two). The MVP award was suspected as being a two person race between Durant and LeBron, with some token votes for Howard. By far the most interesting and diverse predictions were for the Most Improved Player. I think I’ll have to look into this category further – how does one predict which player will have a breakout year? Is it just a hunch? Is it related to a coaching change? A trade? An expected increase in minutes? What is it that Hollinger, for example, can see that enables him to predict that Love would have a great season in 2010-2011? How did Hollinger also think that Greg Oden was going to qualify for the 6^th Man award (I guess advanced stats can’t predict injury)?

Last thing – I thought seriously about taking out the names of the individual analysts and writers, but in the end decided to keep them. I’m hoping that with future posts we can see if there are any identifiable trends through different years.

Sources available after the jump

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/499523-2010-2011-nba-season-preview-record-projections-bold-predictions-and-more/page/34

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/486525-2010-2011-nba-predictions-awards-division-winners-breakout-stars-and-more

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1176274/3/index.htm

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/basketball/nba/10/25/2010-11-preseason-crystal-ball/index.html

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/14186801/nba-201011-season-predictions-anticipation-will-pay-off

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/25502499

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/10/02/survey-predictions/index.html

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/10/02/coaches-predictions/index.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-NBAchamps

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-East

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-West

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Sixth

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-MIP

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-ROY

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/10/02/player-predictions/index.html

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/10/02/rookie-predictions/index.html

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-MVP

Photo

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:02:05 -0400

It should be noted again that out of the analysts/writers...

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 10:00:06 -0400

It should be noted again that out of the analysts/writers covered here, only Bleacher Report even predicted the Executive of the Year Award, so gets a significant increase in the percentages here (and Riley was arguably running unopposed!).

On NBA Predictions

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 09:59:05 -0400

NBA Predictions and Accurate Forecasting

The 2010-2011 Season

I’ve had this idea bubbling for a while. Every year NBA analysts produce predictions for the season about to begin. These are fun to read as a fan. The previews give some early hope for some teams, dashes hopes for others (before anyone’s even back to practice), and promotes some lively debate at the end of the offseason. It’s surely difficult to predict what will happen with any accuracy, though. So I started to wonder about checking up on whether or not those predictions ever come true. I mean – it’s one thing for a casual fan to say that they think “this is the year that the Warriors will turn it all around!” but it should be different for people that report on the NBA as their full-time occupation, right?

I did a search online, tabled some information, and found that it’s hard to predict things. It looks like it’s a fool’s game to predict how the playoffs will shake out (nobody picked Dallas last year in their official previews. There was at least one line about how Dallas could win if the Lakers got hit with injuries). The tables are below, for your information.

I tried to stick with previews that predicted the major categories: Eastern Conference Champions, Western Conference Champions, Finals Champions, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man, and Coach of the Year. I find it interesting how many people are willing to guess Most Improved Player before the start of the season.

Only one preview covered below even guessed the Executive of the Year (Pat Riley) – maybe because it seemed pretty obvious after the coup that Miami pulled in the 2010 offseason and it wasn’t worth putting it into the season preview.

In some of the previews people made different predictions for regular season and playoff success (e.g. Miami to win the Conference but Boston to make it to the Finals) but most of the time people didn’t specify. So if people said “Miami” to win the East, I didn’t make a differentiation and have just put that into the table.

While I just did a standard search for NBA season previews, I avoided forums and unofficial looking things. So I ended up comparing Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, ESPN (and their army of analysts), CBS Sports, and NBA.com’s GM Survey. The GM Survey isn’t really a prediction, but I figured if you ask all 30 NBA GMs (or 29 and Paul Allen) about who’s the best coach, rookie of the year candidate, MVP candidate, etc., that it should be just as valuable a statement as those of any hoops writer. (In a future post I’ll have a look at the 2011-2012 predictions and that one includes Yahoo Sports, Hoopshype, Fox Sports, and Hoop Doctors).

If the NBA season preview did not feature a prediction for a particular award, the cell has been left blank. The cells which are shaded light red are the predictions that match the results. Finally, the percentages you’ll see include only the figures for the predictions that have been made, compared to the predictions that came true.

There’s a separate table for each of the five sources featured. They’re to follow in the next posts as images.

Photo

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 01:07:54 -0400

Shawn Kemp Dunks on Alton Lister (by D1PHAM)

Fri, 23 Mar 2012 00:54:39 -0400

Shawn Kemp Dunks on Alton Lister (by D1PHAM)

SLAM ONLINE | » Video: Joe Johnson’s Clutch Shots Win the Game for Atlanta

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 23:52:11 -0400

SLAM ONLINE | » Video: Joe Johnson’s Clutch Shots Win the Game for Atlanta

Super Nash

Wed, 21 Mar 2012 08:05:06 -0400

Super Nash

Kevin Garnett is underrated

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:55:32 -0400

Kevin Garnett is underrated

Spurs Nation » No regrets for Jackson

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 22:51:04 -0400

Spurs Nation » No regrets for Jackson

“What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you...

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 16:10:05 -0400

“What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Michael Jordan? Steve Nash.”

Hall of Fame quality point guard. Still exciting as a player while pushing 40.

Not good at playing Hero Ball

Hero Ball - The Would-be Heroes

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 08:05:05 -0400

Image from http://btfo.net/blog/2010/11/nba-team-x-marvel-x-espn-magazine/

Continuing with the theme of Hero Ball - a way of play that I don’t actually endorse - I thought I’d look a little at who else actually plays hero ball well and who thinks they play it well. To be fair, the players that think they play it well may also suffer from having a coach that thinks their clutch play will save the team.

To recap - if Hero Ball is giving the ball to one guy at the end of a game with the idea that they’ll make an amazing play, then I’m going to make a few predictions about what kinds of stats we should expect:

A positive adjusted +/- (real heroes don’t lose)
A rise in their FG% in clutch time, as compared to their normal FG% (or at least no significant drop. real heroes step up in the clutch)
A low % of assisted shots (real heroes don’t need sidekicks, sidekicks need heroes)

All statistics below are taken from 82games.com and their sortable tables of production per 48 minutes of clutch time. The table was as recent as Feb 15th, 2012. (Thank you 82games.com)

I’ve made several categories of players, according to their ability to play Hero Ball.

This first group are players that the stats show are trying to be heroes in a losing effort. These are players who have negative +/-, who are looking for their own shots, despite the fact that their shooting percentages decrease in the final minutes of close games.

These are the would-be heroes. Not necessarily bad in the clutch, but they can’t take the team on their back and win the game by shooting.

Nick Young is particularly bad at hero ball, and in crunch time in general. Looks for a lot of his own shots, doesn’t get production in other categories, and even his free throw % goes way down. At least his rebounding improves (from 3.8 to 6)

I was surprised to find Wade on this list. He’s another one of the guys that has a reputation of being a clutch performer. But, this year, even his free throw % is low in crunch time.

If you look on that table you’ll also find that Jennings, Kidd, and Jamal Crawford are shooting terrible percentages on 3PT shots in the clutch. Just awful. Each of those three take at least 8 three pointers per 48 clutch minutes, while hitting less than 10 % of them. Jennings takes 13.5 per 48 at the same percentage. That means that in every close game Jennings is launching 1 or 2 three pointers - no big deal. But he’s only going to hit ONE of those every five games.

Brandon - you’re a good clutch performer at passing, hitting your free throws, getting steals, keeping your turn overs down… but stop playing hero ball!

Always loved his high top fade. Hope it comes back some day

Jordan was so good that it’s made everyone else think they...

Tue, 20 Mar 2012 06:32:37 -0400

Jordan was so good that it’s made everyone else think they should be play like him

thejennytsai:

follow me thejennytsai.tumblr.com “Basketball, basketball, basketball” for nba related goodies

Hero Ball

Mon, 19 Mar 2012 08:06:00 -0400

The Lone Mamba

A few weeks ago Henry Abbott of Truehoop/ESPN wrote a great article in ESPN the Magazine about something he termed ‘Hero Ball’. The basic idea is that there is a mass delusion about the best way to score at the end of a basketball game. Forgoing the effective methods of teamwork and plays, looking for the open shot, or probing for a weakness, the teams that adhere to ‘Hero Ball’ look for someone on their team to win the game by themselves. The ‘Hero’ in this situation usually dribbles a lot, makes a move, and takes what would often be an ill-advised shot.

Casey at the Bat - Hero Baseball

Abbott’s analysis - in the afore mentioned article as well as several blog posts in the last year or so - is that this approach is actually very detrimental to the team’s ability to score. An often used example is Kobe Bryant, someone that has a reputation of hitting clutch shots. What the statistics show is that Kobe is not afraid to take these shots - one might even say he demands that he be given the opportunity to have his actions decide the outcome.

For many of these players that are given the last several seconds, to dribble, to build anticipation, and then to heave a tough shot over an anxious defender… well the statistics show that, on average, their shot is much less likely to be successful.

I went to 82games.com for their 2011-2012 sortable clutch statistics. They have defined ‘clutch’ as

“4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points”.

Some of the things you can find in this table are fascinating, including a case to be made the Hedo Turkoglu is the best hero-baller in the NBA.

The main knock on Kobe in the clutch is that his shooting percentage goes way down. According to the table on 82games.com, his field goal % per 48 minutes of clutch time is .279. And that’s with 38.3 field goal attempts. His 3-point percentage is worse at .200. These things I can kind of understand - it’s a close game, everyone knows the ball is not leaving Kobe’s hands once he has it. Everyone knows he’s willing to try horribly bad shots, probably against the other team’s best wing defender.

Look at how his numbers in clutch time compare to his 2011-2012 regular season averages:

2011-2012 FG: 43% versus clutch FG:27.9%

2011-2012 3PT: 29.3% versus clutch 3PT:20%

What surprised me was that Kobe’s free throws are also down in the clutch.

2011-2012 FT: 83.8% versus clutch FT: 71%

What’s even more interesting is that, despite these shortcomings, Kobe’s clutch +/- is still really high, at +21. So even though he’s a much less efficient scorer in the clutch, he’s still really effective. His rebounds go up from 7.0 (per 48 mins) to 10.1 in the clutch (per 48 clutch minutes). His assists jump from 5.9 to 8.8 (14th best). The intensity affects his turnovers, too, which go from 4.8 to 6.3.

We can also see from the sortable table that 23% of his clutch time shots are assisted. The table shows that he’s averaging 38.3 FGAs per 48 clutch minutes. By my math, this means that for the 76 clutch minutes this year he’s taken about 60 shots. 14 of those have been assisted.

I may be adding this up wrong, but it also looks like he’s only hit about 17 of those 60 shots (the .279 shooting percentage). Which means that not only is Kobe not as clutch as our legends would have it - but that most of his made shots are coming when someone else passes him the ball.

Now I’ve probably already drawn the ire of most of Kobe’s fans - the angry, rabid group that they are - and this is not my intention. Kobe’s a great, hall of fame player and an amazing athlete. Early Kobe with the funky afro is the one that I prefer to remember. Great hops, the same fearless approach to every game, and every facet of his own game.

But I think we’ve all seen the games where he seems to think he should take every shot, no matter how many defenders he’s got on him, or how unlikely it is that he’ll make it. That is never fun to watch. That’s the type of play that agitates people playing pick up so why would I want to watch that in the NBA?

Now - regarding Hedo… he’s assisted on 7% of his shots in the clutch. He averages 17.7 attempts per 48, and he’s shooting .609. 61%!!!! Unassisted! His normal FG% per game is .400. He doesn’t even qualify for the top half of small forwards in FG% per 48 minutes on ESPN’s website. His adjusted +/- in the clutch is +41. Both Ryan Anderson (+48) and Danny Green (+41) are also high in +/- but they also get assisted on 87% and 50% of their shots, respectively, both have lousy FG% (.364 and .182, although Anderson shoots .467 for 3PT%) and are surely being very effective role players for their teams.

But Hedo is going way above his usual production, except for a dip in FT%.

Yes, Hedo.

References

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7649571/nba-kobe-bryant-not-money-think-espn-magazine

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avgRebounds/position/shooting-guards

http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT4.HTM